AMPHAN Current Status
Current Wind Speed 100 knots / 115 MPH
Max Predicted Wind Speed 100 knots / 115 MPH at
AMPHAN Land Hazards
No land hazards or hazard data not available for this storm.
AMPHAN Tracker
wind (knots)
< 35
35+
64+
83+
96+
113+
137+
< 35
35+
64+
83+
96+
113+
137+
AMPHAN Satellite Loop
AMPHAN Alternate Tracking Map
AMPHAN Spaghetti Models
Spaghetti models for AMPHAN can be found here:
AMPHAN Watches and Warnings
TROPICAL CYCLONE AMPHAN Tropical Cyclone Update
TROPICAL CYCLONE AMPHAN Public Advisory
WTIO31 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 17.4N 87.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4N 87.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 19.5N 87.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 21.9N 88.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 24.1N 88.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 25.5N 89.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 17.9N 87.1E.
19MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (AMPHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 322
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WEAKENED SYSTEM THAT STILL RETAINS TIGHTLY
WRAPPED BANDING DESPITE NO LONGER PRESENTING A VISIBLE EYE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY LONG-RANGE RADAR DATA FROM INDIA,
WHICH CAPTURES THE INTENSE WESTERN EYEWALL, IN ADDITION TO A MICROWAVE
EYE SEEN IN A 191033Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS. THE EYEWALL IS OPEN ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE EYE, INDICATIVE OF THE EASTERLY SHEAR AND MID-
LEVEL DRY AIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS IN AGREEMNT GIVEN
THE PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) AND AN
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE AT 191215Z
OF T5.9 (95 KNOTS). TC 01B IS TRACKING THROUGH A GENERALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), VERY WARM (31 DEG CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND FAIR
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 01B IS TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER NER TO THE EAST AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALONG ITS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE DURATION OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 01B IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING DUE TO
HIGH (25-30 KNOTS) VWS AND A DETERIORATING UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 24. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED
BEFORE TAU 48 DUE TO HIGH (>25 KNOTS) VWS AND TERRAIN INTERACTION.
TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH ONLY
MINIMAL SPREAD (50 NM) AT LANDFALL, WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY
THEREAFTER AS MODELS HAVE DIFFICULTY IN TRACKING THE VORTEX. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
COTI, INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS A STEADY WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS AGREEMENT WITH THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS
OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.//
NNNN
Public Advisory not available for this storm.
TROPICAL CYCLONE AMPHAN Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.
AMPHAN storm path from JTWC
| Time | Speed | Location | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100 knots | 17.4, 87.0 | ||
| 85 knots | 19.5, 87.6 | ||
| 70 knots | 21.9, 88.3 | dissipating | |
| 45 knots | 24.1, 88.9 | dissipating | |
| 30 knots | 25.5, 89.4 | dissipated |
